At the upcoming AITPM conference, VLC will be presenting the findings of a research project aimed at evaluating the benefits of toll roads. This work examines the degree to which the economic benefit of toll roads is related to the prices charged.

VLC has used the Zenith model of South East Queensland, which encapsulates research conducted on a number of established toll roads in Australia, to produce forecasts for the soon to open Airport Link toll road in Brisbane.

This major new addition to Brisbane’s transport infrastructure has the potential to provide substantial benefits to motorists travelling through the inner northern suburbs, and improved accessibility across the region.

Modelling by VLC has forecast the traffic volumes through the project and the congestion relief it will provide on existing roads. Clearly, the degree to which the project can achieve these outcomes will be influenced by the amount of demand it can attract from alternative routes. This will be dependent on the toll prices charged.

Here, we summarise our forecasts for this major new piece of infrastructure:

Forecast Definition: The traffic forecasts presented below are the sum of all three tolled movements:

  • Bowen Hills to/from Kedron
  • Kedron to/from Toombul
  • Bowen Hills to/from Toombul

All forecasts relate to a normal weekday during school term time, and include all types of vehicles (cars, motorcycles and commercial vehicles).

  • Toll Free Period: August – October 2012

BrisConnections, the operator of Airport Link, has stated that the toll road will operate free for the first month, and free for E-Tag holders for a further 2 months.

VLC’s internal travel modelling indicates that, once Brisbane residents are aware of the travel time benefits that the new road will offer, as an un-tolled road, it will be well utilised. By the end of the 3 month toll-free period, our models suggest that Airport Link could be carrying in the order of 120,000 vehicles on a normal weekday, so long as people are enticed to purchase E-Tags to avail themselves of toll free status.

  • Low Toll Period: November 2012 – April 2013

BrisConnections has indicated that Airport Link will charge a low toll during the 6 month period from November 2012 to April 2013.

For cars, the toll scheme is as follows:
Bowen Hills to/from Kedron – $2.00
Kedron to/from Toombul – $2.00
Bowen Hills to/from Toombul – $2.50

Higher tolls apply for commercial vehicles and lower tolls for motorcyclists.

VLC’s Zenith travel model suggests that towards the end of this low toll period, the road could carry in the order of 85,000 vehicles on a normal weekday.

  • Medium Toll Period: May 2013 – October 2013

BrisConnections has indicated that Airport Link will charge a medium toll during the 6 month period from May to October 2013.

For cars, the toll scheme is as follows:
Bowen Hills to/from Kedron – $2.90
Kedron to/from Toombul – $2.90
Bowen Hills to/from Toombul – $3.75

VLC’s Zenith travel model suggests that towards the end of this medium toll period, the road could carry in the order of 72,000 vehicles on a normal weekday.

  • Full Toll Period: November 2013 Onwards

BrisConnections has indicated that Airport Link will charge its full toll from November 2013 onwards.

For cars, the toll scheme is as follows:
Bowen Hills to/from Kedron – $3.65
Kedron to/from Toombul – $3.65
Bowen Hills to/from Toombul – $4.90

VLC’s Zenith travel model suggests that at its full toll, Airport Link might carry in the order of 60,000 vehicles on an average weekday.

These forecasts have been produced for the purpose of research and should not be relied upon for any investment purpose.